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Colress's Experiment

#190

Lost Origin · Rare Ultra · EN

Community Fair Value · H-NM
$1.83
Market data only
Market anchor (FV_sales)
$1.83
Community estimate
needs 5 more voters
Voters · comps
0 · 193
The band · ±15% of marketCFV $1.83
Floor $1.56Market $1.83Ceiling $2.10

The community moves this only within the glowing band - it can never detach from real market data.

Market anchor $1.83193 compsas of 2026-07-03

Est. International

Approx.
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Card details

Card Number190/196 · Rare Ultra
Card TypeSupporter
ArtistNaoki Saito
Card Text

Look at the top 5 cards of your deck and put 3 of them into your hand. Put the other cards in the Lost Zone.

You may play only 1 Supporter card during your turn.

Graded prices

CGC 10 (Pristine)
$40.00
model estimate
CGC 10
$8.24
model estimate
CGC 9.5
$10.00
inconsistent estimate
CGC 9
$19.94
inconsistent estimate

“model estimate” tiles are Scrydex modeled values (as of 2026-06-29). Struck-through tiles failed our graded data-quality checks and should not be treated as market truth.

Population report

Total graded
299
Gem rate (PSA 10)
48.5%
Grade 10
145
Grade 9
115
Grade 8
29
Grade 7
4
Grade 6
1
9Q
5

PSAcensus for this card's most-graded printing · as of 2026-06-29. Gem rate = grade-10 slabs ÷ total graded.

Market Price History

Market price
$2.02
+$0.33 (+19.5%)
$2.06$1.57Apr 2026Today
86 data points over 90 days · Source: market data

Near Mint Comparison Prices

CGC_9.5
$10.00
H-DMG
$1.04
H-HP
Thin data$1.48
H-LP
$1.70
H-MP
$1.43
H-NM
$1.83
PSA_10
$29.86
PSA_7
$4.00
PSA_9
$9.50

Price Points

H-NM
Market Price
+10.4%Low confidence$1.24 - $2.42

Source prices are inconsistent across grades/conditions - showing a range while we sort it out. Mid estimate $1.83.

VolatilityModerate Volatility
Most Recent SaleComing soon
Listed MedianComing soon
Current QuantityComing soon
Current SellersComing soon

3 Month Snapshot

Low SaleComing soon
High SaleComing soon
Total SoldComing soon
Avg Daily SoldComing soon

Sale-based and live-listing fields arrive once a realized-sales feed is wired up. Market Price and comparisons above are real Scrydex market data - never realized sales.

Graded price history

PSA 10PSA 9PSA 7CGC 9.5
$10$20$30PSA 10 peak · $29.86 · Jun 28, 2026PSA 10 low · $28.27 · May 10, 2026PSA 10PSA 9 peak · $18.98 · Feb 23, 2026PSA 9 low · $8.06 · Feb 28, 2026PSA 9PSA 7 peak · $4.00 · Jun 24, 2026PSA 7CGC 9.5 peak · $10.00 · May 4, 2026CGC 9.5Feb 23Jun 28
9 realized data points · daily eBay sold medians (accruing daily) · grades with fewer than 2 points are hidden until more data lands.
View data table
DateGradeRealized median
Jun 28, 2026CGC 9.5$10.00
Jun 28, 2026PSA 7$4.00
Jun 28, 2026PSA 9$9.50
Jun 28, 2026PSA 10$29.86
Jun 24, 2026PSA 7$4.00
May 10, 2026PSA 10$28.27
May 4, 2026CGC 9.5$10.00
Feb 28, 2026PSA 9$8.06
Feb 23, 2026PSA 9$18.98

Verified market data - based on 1 realized eBay data point · updated Jun 28, 2026

Average
$9.50
Median
$9.50
Range
$9.50 - $9.50
Data points
1

PSA 9 · last 90 days

Daily realized medians

latest 3 of 3
DatePriceSource
Jun 28, 2026$9.50eBay realized
Feb 28, 2026$8.06eBay realized
Feb 23, 2026$18.98eBay realized

Realized rows are daily median snapshots of eBay sold data - not individual auction records.

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Your estimate · H-NM

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Think you can read the market? Guess what this H-NM actually sells for. It's a free forecasting game - score on accuracy, not on moving the price. The more you call, the more your vote counts.
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Make a call · H-NM

No open calls yet

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Community sentiment

50% bullish

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Sentiment is hype only; it is never blended into the dollar value above.

Should I grade this?

Colress's Experiment

Raw market value $1.83Modern · 2022
HOLD

Hold for now

Hold, grading isn't worth it: best option (PSA) only nets -$68.79 at -78% ROI (need $15.00 and 25%).

PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator)PSA

Market leader · liquidity premium

Real censusHigh confidence
-78% ROI
Expected value$19.04
Expected profit-$68.79
Break-even value$87.83
All-in · Regular$86.00
Turnaround~45d (est.)

Expected value is pop-weighted across possible grades - not the top-grade price.

Graded values as of Jun 29, 2026

Outcome range

Best case · top grade

-$58.76

PSA 10pop 145

$29.07

realized · median of 2 sales

Worst case · low grade

-$82.33

PSA 8pop 29

$5.50

estimate

CGC (Certified Guaranty Company)CGC

Mid-market · solid demand

EstimatedLow confidenceEst. quality: low
-52% ROI (est.)
Expected value (range)$7 to $14
Expected profit-$11.38
Break-even value$21.83
All-in · Bulk$20.00
Turnaround~120d (est.)

Expected value is pop-weighted across possible grades - not the top-grade price.

Graded values as of Jun 29, 2026

Outcome range

Best case · top grade

$18.17

CGC 10 (Pristine)

$40.00

estimate

Worst case · low grade

-$13.59

CGC 9

$8.24

estimate

Inconsistent estimate - awaiting realized solds

Comps look noisy: a lower grade was priced at or above a higher one, so values are clamped to grade order and shown as an approximate range.

  • CGC 9.5 ($10.00) priced above CGC 10 ($8.24) - ladder violation
  • CGC 9 ($19.94) priced above CGC 10 ($8.24) - ladder violation
  • no CGC population census for this card